When you place a bet on a horse, you take odds that are correct at that particular moment in time.
But what happens if another horse in the field is withdrawn as a non-runner? The betting odds for that race have to be recalculated, with your potential payout likely to be altered as a result.
This is known as Rule 4, a concept you can learn more about in this very article…
What is Rule 4?
Imagine you place your horse racing bets on the morning of the race. You know the odds you have taken and the amount you have wagered, so therefore you are able to calculate your possible payout should your pick win/place.
A couple of hours before the off, there’s an almighty downpour of rain and a trainer withdraws their horse from the field, not wanting to run them on the softer ground.
Now, your horse has fewer to beat – excellent news, you might think. But not so: a bookmaker has to recalibrate their odds to reflect the change, with the odds on your selection shortening as a result.
This is Rule 4 in action. Rule 4 is an adjustment calculation that works out the odds for the horses left in the field as a result of the withdrawal. It’s applied to your bet automatically, so if your return is lower than you were anticipating, this could very well be the reason why.
But Rule 4 is not a reason to bet more than you can afford. Always bet responsibly – visit our Safer Gambling Portal for more information.
What are the Rule 4 Deductions?
There is no set Rule 4 deduction, with the revision of your odds and potential payout determined by a number of different factors.
The most important variable in Rule 4 is the quality of the horse that has been withdrawn. If they are the 2/1 favourite in a six-horse race, clearly their absence has a major bearing on the outcome – therefore, a Rule 4 deduction would be applied.
Conversely, if a 100/1 outsider in a 20-horse race is declared a non-runner, the Rule 4 deduction would be minimal – and perhaps not even noticeable at all as far as your payout is concerned.
It’s not an exact science, but the more prominent a withdrawn horse is expected to be in a race, the greater the Rule 4 deduction is likely to be on your bet.
Does Rule 4 Apply to Ante-Post Bets?
A different set of circumstances apply to ante-post betting.
As you may know, if you place an ante-post wager and your horse doesn’t run in that particular race, you may not be liable for a stake refund.
However, on the flip side, no Rule 4 deductions are applied to ante-post markets. So, if a big favourite is withdrawn from a race, your bet will not be affected.
How Do You Calculate Rule 4?
Happily, you don’t need to know the deduction calculation off the top of your head as our Rule 4 betting table below reveals all.
As you can see, the more prominent the withdrawn horse, the more consequential it is to your revised payout. But there are scenarios in which your Rule 4 deduction will be minimal – or, indeed, no deduction will be made at all.
| Odds of Withdrawn Horse | Deduction | As a % |
| 1/9 or shorter | 90p of £1 | 90% |
| 2/11 to 2/17 | 85p of £1 | 85% |
| 1/4 to 1/5 | 80p of £1 | 80% |
| 3/10 to 2/7 | 75p of £1 | 75% |
| 2/5 to 1/3 | 70p of £1 | 70% |
| 8/15 to 4/9 | 65p of £1 | 65% |
| 8/13 to 4/7 | 60p of £1 | 60% |
| 4/5 to 4/6 | 55p of £1 | 55% |
| 20/21 to 5/6 | 50p of £1 | 50% |
| Evens to 6/5 | 45p of £1 | 45% |
| 5/4 to 6/4 | 40p of £1 | 40% |
| 8/5 to 7/4 | 35p of £1 | 35% |
| 9/5 to 9/4 | 30p of £1 | 30% |
| 12/5 to 3/1 | 25p of £1 | 25% |
| 16/5 to 4/1 | 20p of £1 | 20% |
| 9/2 to 11/2 | 15p of £1 | 15% |
| 6/1 to 9/1 | 10p of £1 | 10% |
| 10/1 to 14/1 | 5p of £1 | 5% |
| Over 15/1 | No Deduction | 0% |
What if There’s More Than One Non-Runner?
The Rule 4 deductions calculator gets a good workout when more than one horse is withdrawn prior to the off.
The betting market will be revised as per the Rule 4 deductions table above for each absent. So the odds – and your potential payout – will move after the first horse is withdrawn, then again after the second and so on.
But as we’ve learned, the nature of your Rule 4 deductions will depend upon the quality of the horses withdrawn.
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